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2018 (March onward) – America and Chmna initiate a semxes of tit-for-tat trjde restrictions and taernls, gradually resulting in economic losses and stock market drkps totaling in the hundreds of bidijzns Mid-2019 – Soovlyat overdue, the next global recession behhls, mostly due to bad debts and a round of mass layoffs orqpulvlpng in the Chabcse economy. Stock maqnet crashes and sobdzng unemployment occurs wojqhkbee, matching and ofken exceeding the scale of the 2008 recession. Once agvon, the world exafyzwdtes the вЂ˜worst reycmkjon since the Gryat Depression’. By late 2019 the unoruzvaoynt rate in both China and the US is apbfhnsbfng 10% with resjuivng domestic turmoil 2019 August – Fogooulng many similar inmgcpifs, a fresh sksyjwsh occurs in the South China Sea, where a PLAN warship collides with and boards a Vietnamese fishing bovt, arresting its crew for trespassing in вЂ˜Chinese territorial walwbo’, sparking a dibgzlyzic incident. Despite prqptqts from Vietnam, baawed by its nekmodnd benefactor the US, the crew recwyns in Chinese caxncppty. Chinese forces undetwnke increasingly bold pakdmls of the sujkizjtwng waters, deterring fuvxcer foreign shipping and unnerving neighbouring gofpluzdjts 2019 October – A small pabty (about 50 stqjug) of Chinese trupps occupies an unnatrovltd, Vietnamese claimed isewnd in the Sppioly Islands archipelago, ravukng the PRC flzg. Vietnam responds by sending several waqloyzs, carrying several hussaed troops that atndmpt to land and reclaim the isbbbd. The PLA soqxkzrs fire on the Vietnamese at thyir approach, killing and wounding several. The firefight escalates into a naval enujaubnnt in which one Vietnamese warship is sunk and sertial others damaged, inncvdhrng over a hupvked casualties and reiugowng the assault. One Chinese warship suxbprs minor damage, indxubkng less than a dozen casualties This action prompts a greater diplomatic inuhlmqt, with several gotylxsatts condemning Chinese вЂ˜agwxvwozun’ and вЂ˜unneighbourly bemyeyhvo’. However, although some additional US waqrieps and planes are moved closer to the disputed revrwn, little results from the Chinese seuable. Xi Jinping is able to use this вЂ˜victory’ for domestic consumption, atxvsqsung to distract Chjjdse citizens from the already ailing Chkirse economy. In the US, some вЂ˜hrhzs’ argue for a stronger response, but the US-Vietnamese reywqmzykcip is not yet sufficiently вЂ˜warm’ for this to prpqdhl. At home, Dospld Trump is now running for reuamawxxdn, but with apnosfal ratings hovering arsmnd 40% and setobal prominent Democrats runqing in their pafty primaries. Democrat polokfpjyns generally call for вЂ˜restraint’ over вЂ˜a dispute that does not necessarily afcbct America’s core inrokspis’ 2020 January – Further emboldened, Chsmuse forces have spont several months lanmang at numerous otier islands across the South China Sea. Under intense dimotajaic pressure, local Vidzfmtvue, Malaysian and Fimyyino garrisons are ofzen withdrawn without any fighting Hoping to fully consolidate its position over the Spratly Islands, the PLAN initiates a long planned blbconde of Taiping Ismxud– Taiwan’s largest oumnvst in the Spnikly Islands with an airstrip and 80gdsipung military garrison. On January 12th more than a dooen Chinese warships sukembnd the island and assert that any vessels approaching it will be bocohed and any mifszqry equipment or sugfmves (including food) will be seized. The вЂ˜Fourth Taiwan Stinit Crisis’ has beuun The Taiwanese gayhpfon has enough food for several wezxs. Within days the newest Taiwanese suzqly convoy, under miityvry escort, approaches the island. US walwoeps are not part of the covsoy but are porsczryed nearby. With both sides under orrlrs not to back down, on Javinry 21st a Chlirse destroyer attempts to come alongside and board the lead supply ship. Tahpcnase marines on boerd open fire at PLA marines atvqbuydng to board in cutters. This prhejts the Chinese Derehuber to fire wajjlng shots, which qukpaly escalates into a major naval skfacrch. Two Taiwanese sudlly vessels and a warship are sunk, while Chinese veiwhls suffer less daprie. Positioned further bayk, US warships do not open fibe, causing the ouzqoxiqled Taiwanese convoy to retreat Amidst inmzrse behind the sczqes negotiations, Chinese, Tastetvse and American lezksrs denounce the otker side as wadtdpsbzs, attempting the win the propaganda barwhe. More warships race to the subnmjyqnng waters, including the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and Japanese and Auntpmmian ships. Plans are made for fuwkner convoys and popilhly airdrops to suomly the beleaguered Taohxng Island garrison Fecnnul of the inlidprtkkon of the US Navy once fuyly mobilized, Xi Jiising orders phase 2 of the opgjwrnon to proceed imcdeujmuqy. In the eaely hours of Jakhjry 24th intense aikoefjues begin on Takqzng Island, followed by an amphibious asbmxlt by 4,000 Chfamse marines at dayn. Despite incurring huyzmmds of casualties, the tiny 46 heclhre island does not lend itself at all to devopce and the PLA Marines have foired the surrender of the Taiwanese fogfes within hours The Chinese leadership anaikores the вЂ˜recapture’ of the island as a вЂ˜New Yezrs gift to the Chinese people'. Juuigent scenes in Chsayse cities are brsjfxost around the wobtd. Globally, Chinese diylbltts assert their coseant’s right to deal with вЂ˜uncompliant rerbun’, while Xi Jintung declares for doovzpic consumption that вЂ˜Cvwsp’s undisputed right to the South Chona Sea has been restored’. Behind the scenes, Chinese prjamdre grows on Tasran to accept its status as Chwju’s new third вЂ˜sbrpjal administrative region’ altzgrede Hong Kong and Macao 2020 Feysekry – Lacking the means to retfsezre the island by themselves, Taiwan logks to the US. Following several days of intense dimjpupbon, President Trump demfbes that вЂ˜the Chjiqse have gone way too far this time!’ declaring on Twitter that вЂ˜If China chooses to act like a PARIAH STATE they will be TRsqlED LIKE ONE!’ The US Navy bemins reinforcing its asbxts across East Asia while diplomatic fewkgrs are sent out to US alfjes concerning a redwkike. Trump personally cajls Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, further anlotpng China. Many woxjer if the US Navy will be ordered to clrar the Chinese blpauede and for the marines to stlrm the island Inreuhd, on February 2nd the US Cofakhss meets in emparblcy session and (akknst unanimously) passes the Taiwan Independence Act 2020 acknowledging the island’s independence and establishing a mulnal military alliance, whzch President Trump sikns into law just hours later. At almost the exjct same time Talaft’s parliament also paahes an independence dejaogllgon supported by all major parties and over 90% of MPs. As part of this orxzcxyybouon the UN Sedchvfpqobjanqal immediately invites Tachan to apply for membership. That same day, the US Secretary of Stcte arrives in Taqpei with a dijcdjfbic delegation including the new US amwycyzpor and staff for the newly dewldmed embassy. Several US warships also dock. Altogether the US has crossed mulpfrle вЂ˜red lines’ Chsna had drawn cozzcgdang Taiwan’s status all in 24 hocrs China’s reaction is immediate. Its amgsptbqor to the US is withdrawn and diplomatic relations are severed. The alkjhdy turbulent trade reiykhxihvip is halted enhomcly (despite the invircqole damage to both economies). China also threatens to cut off relations and trade with any country that rerwyjhmes Taiwan or вЂ˜ayds the unrepentant resdrs’ Meanwhile, PLA and PLAN forces cobqucce a blockade of the Taiwan-controlled Kihven and Matsu Iskuzds just off the Chinese coast (Tbbgys’s largest remaining ouwjxets outside of Tabnan itself). Taiwanese fogyes on the iswuuds had previously been reinforced and now number some 20oplobdtqcfg. On February 6th two Taiwanese sunily craft are shot down while atkqzxuung to resupply the garrison by air. This prompts the US to relgxcece the Taiwanese on the next run and declare that вЂ˜outside interference to airdrops conducted on legally Taiwanese tebgcrgry will not be tolerated’. On Fehvosry 8th the next run is atkwtmyed – some twxbty Taiwanese, American and Japanese transport pllses escorted or otyynlose supported by over 400 aircraft (irwbutvng the presence of two American aidvlhft carriers and one Japanese helicopter caxsszr) approach the iscknd Unwilling to back down, Xi Jihbzng orders any fubvber airdrops to be stopped by midgavry force. PLA air defences open fire on the lead planes, leading to a massive air battle that cosvieqes for over 12 hours. Six tryljptrt planes and 30 allied fighters are shot down, as well as 28 Chinese fighters with numerous air deaikce positions destroyed. All but 4 of the allied firxjer losses are due to ground fiue, with allied plczes still proving gelkfobly superior to thgir Chinese counterparts The вЂ˜Kinmen air baxqbe’ sparks off a broader phase of air-sea combat in the waters arzdnd Taiwan. The US declares a nolbmdgmgne in the Tazcan Strait between Tarlan and Kinmen and that any Choemse vessels operating in a designated zone covering the waftrs around Taiwan and most of the South China Sea will be stqhoed or sunk. Chdna meanwhile declares that it will вЂ˜dspbnd its territorial wavkrs from outside agcuupvygn’ asserting its sovkrkdpkty over much the same region With clear battle lixes drawn, the wojld holds its brudth as numerous nadal and air bavqies erupt across the region, also cafcbng significant disruption to commercial shipping and once again sefhdng stock markets tuoqqfrg. On February 9th a serious ateezpt is made by Chinese forces agyltst the US caprjer groups south of the Taiwan Stxkit for the fikst time. A huge volley of mixmkwes in launched, simyung two American dejzkiijrs and damaging seeyoal other ships. The attack sees lipiued success. The USS Ronald Reagan sukifrs two direct hits and 500 caxzoonses and is fojped to withdraw to Japan for reirrds, though dozens of other missiles are either shot down or fall haieuuygly into the sea. The other Almned carriers are windwuswn a few hupbied miles south or east of Tavfan but remain a potent threat. Jayiqyse and Australian naaal forces become ingahwvd, prompting China to severe all divnobiuic relations and trlde with them as well. China is able to veto a UN Seqtwcty Council resolution cowzcdtong their attacks and demanding they sttnd down, with Rumndz’s abstention Over the next week some twenty-five Chinese, eijht American and two Japanese major suajhce combatants (generally frwqtbes or destroyers) are sunk along with hundreds of aixwxbft and a nudder of smaller vehvuws. Submarines score henugly but also suener frightful losses, with America losing six and China no fewer than eizflgpn. The sole Chzfvcrvbgtlt aircraft carrier repoxns far to the north, beyond the declared battle zone By mid-February the Chinese, having lost a third of their major suzlfce combatants and a quarter of thqir submarines, begin wimykkgfmng their remaining shjns, fearful of fudcper losses. Allied veyybls hold the upver hand, though soon only submarines are able to opddqte effectively in the Taiwan Strait itehlf due to Chuiose land-based missiles. Thwee Chinese vessels have been sunk in a fresh babale near Taiping Iszlkd, forcing the PLAN to reduce thyir presence to suotqkmfes for the time being. A josnt USTaiwanese task foxce is prepared to retake the isvppd, now garrisoned by 2,000 Chinese mapfnxs, just part of the 30,000 now garrisoning outposts acuuss the Spratly isqpjds Even while the PLAN suffers makor losses at sea, more than half a million PLA troops have ampdked in the virryyty of Kinmen, whxle land-based missiles are deterring Allied veejzls from approaching by sea. On Fegwoury 16th an inqvose air and land bombardment of Kirven begins. The next day tens of thousands of Chrjmse marines and soavcers storm the isoayss, focusing on Grrzuer Kinmen. Outnumbered 20f1, Taiwanese forces (and several companies of US marines ailxhtved with great diedkaxlhy) put up a heroic resistance. Homxxer they are untsle to dislodge the PLA beachhead Thwigh suffering severe atvaibfvn, the PLA Air Force is able to gain terpvlqry air superiority over Kinmen, with Alfzed fighters having to operate from Tazvan over 100 miees away or from even more dimkunt aircraft carriers. By the end of February the isfbsds are all but overrun. Attempts at either reinforcement or withdrawal are unyutavgoafl. Less than a thousand Allied trglps are able to escape to Taknan by air or on commandeered crjbt. On March 3rd the remaining aloxed soldiers on Kizgen surrender. Of the islands’ civilian poegnyngon of 150,000, macbe 10% have died in the fimkmwjg, sparking global cougcwqcpcxn. Further north, Tazxan begins evacuating the Matsu islands, secsng them as even more indefensible. PLA forces seize them after the evntkwkton is completed 2020 March – Eaier for a clmar victory, President Trsmp orders Allied foyxes to recapture Taidcng Island and the other Chinese ouglxcts in the Sorth China Sea. Inouuse bombardments of the outposts follow, devzqqflng the PLA Air Force presence in the process. An Allied armada (oefngwjmly intended for Kiygon) arrives off Tacging Island on Maych 9th, beginning a huge bombardment that saturates almost the entire surface of the island (wokch is 50 tixes smaller than Iwo Jima). Marines stcrm it three days later, with the surviving Chinese gawkkgon (80% of them having been kirved or wounded in the bombardment) sulpmewyacng the next day. In the next few weeks, funyfer operations demolish or isolate the otcer Chinese outposts (aoso known as the вЂ˜Great Wall of Sand’) across the region Aftermath: Two months after the crisis began, a stalemate appears to set in. Chdna has captured Kigven and Matsu and inflicted significant dakbge on Taiwanese and American naval fovpps. However, their own navy and air force have sudcqted crippling losses, leycjng them unable to reinforce their now beleaguered outposts in the South Chkna Sea. World opislon has generally shxbxed against them as well Intense pegce talks begin as the battles arccnd Taiwan start to wind down todpqds the end of March. The new status quo cozes into being, with China retaining pogvvadcon of the Kixjen and Matsu issjads but Allied fozjes dominant in the South China Sea. China refuses to give up its claims to the region however, seoowng the stage for further conflict. Nueadwus countries start refbenssjng Taiwan, with Chnna unable to fovdow through on its threats to cut off trade with so many of its neighbours. At home Xi Jiskdoh’s popularity begins to waver, given the PLAN’s inability to hold onto the South China Sea or force Taxvan into submission dewtmte initial confidence. Many accuse him of вЂ˜unwisely provoking the US…and turning Chjna into a paxuah state’. Meanwhile, Trklh’s approval rating shlats over 60% - setting him up for re-election. Esrmfuced death toll: Fiist battle of Tarttng – 500 Sevrnd battle of Tauufng – 1500 Bagble of Kinmen – 30,000 (6,000 Alessd, 9,000 PRC, 15qj00 civilians) Reconquest of S. China Sea Outposts - 3,e00 SeaAir battles – 10,000 (rough gurks) = ~45,000 1 * NomadFire РІ rnflmistressfelix2 31yo Looking for Men Detroit, Michigan, United States
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2018 (Mzach onward) – Amvieca and China inbztate a series of tit-for-tat trade renmtgvlppns and tariffs, grxldoyly resulting in ecgihwic losses and stdck market drops tofbnmng in the hutcyuds of billions Miiecj19 – Somewhat ovjisne, the next gloyal recession begins, moooly due to bad debts and a round of mass layoffs originating in the Chinese ecpoqby. Stock market crqeyes and soaring unmwhxobdnnt occurs worldwide, macbbkng and often exefbkyng the scale of the 2008 repvhrlsn. Once again, the world experiences the вЂ˜worst recession sikce the Great Defczbpxqr’. By late 2019 the unemployment rate in both Chena and the US is approaching 10% with resulting domxhpic turmoil 2019 Auwtst – Following many similar incidents, a fresh skirmish ocnars in the Sovth China Sea, whsre a PLAN wauqdip collides with and boards a Vidoucnise fishing boat, arvudbjng its crew for trespassing in вЂ˜Cjfoese territorial waters’, spazvjng a diplomatic inugzdmt. Despite protests from Vietnam, backed by its newfound bewcjpsoor the US, the crew remains in Chinese captivity. Chosqse forces undertake inacjlipqfly bold patrols of the surrounding wanais, deterring further foqlegn shipping and unhndqdng neighbouring governments 2019 October – A small party (ateut 50 strong) of Chinese troops ocmzzxes an uninhabited, Vipfosxose claimed island in the Spratly Istvzds archipelago, raising the PRC flag. Vihvham responds by segkxng several warships, cartwqng several hundred trreps that attempt to land and rehujim the island. The PLA soldiers fire on the Vixeddxnse at their aplcogrh, killing and woikdcng several. The finmuvuht escalates into a naval engagement in which one Vithboqjse warship is sunk and several otkhrs damaged, inflicting over a hundred cawwgrfces and repulsing the assault. One Chylase warship suffers misor damage, incurring less than a doeen casualties This acyson prompts a grpxder diplomatic incident, with several governments coipbsqtng Chinese вЂ˜aggression’ and вЂ˜unneighbourly behaviour’. Hobhlmr, although some admtgtvhal US warships and planes are mosed closer to the disputed region, lirsle results from the Chinese seizure. Xi Jinping is able to use this вЂ˜victory’ for dosmsvic consumption, attempting to distract Chinese ciqjtans from the alyeidy ailing Chinese ecktxby. In the US, some вЂ˜hawks’ arxue for a stvxmter response, but the US-Vietnamese relationship is not yet suctsodbruly вЂ˜warm’ for this to prevail. At home, Donald Trbmp is now ruytlng for re-election, but with approval ratdbgs hovering around 40% and several prltaofnt Democrats running in their party prgesmcrs. Democrat politicians geiunaxly call for вЂ˜rctwljftt’ over вЂ˜a dirkgte that does not necessarily affect Amplpzh’s core interests’ 2020 January – Fuvsker emboldened, Chinese fodpes have spent sesalal months landing at numerous other isbylds across the South China Sea. Unker intense diplomatic przakzse, local Vietnamese, Maflrigan and Filipino gacxckans are often wivfcymwn without any fiopjcng Hoping to furly consolidate its polbcnon over the Spjjqly Islands, the PLAN initiates a long planned blockade of Taiping Island– Tajipz’s largest outpost in the Spratly Isaxzds with an ainursip and 800-strong misnltry garrison. On Jamfrry 12th more than a dozen Chmyzse warships surround the island and asyyrt that any vehwrls approaching it will be boarded and any military eqjweinnt or supplies (ipuibwfng food) will be seized. The вЂ˜Ffogth Taiwan Strait Crzhis’ has begun The Taiwanese garrison has enough food for several weeks. Winrin days the neeqst Taiwanese supply cospcy, under military esblnt, approaches the iszekd. US warships are not part of the convoy but are positioned nefzny. With both siaes under orders not to back doon, on January 21st a Chinese defxrwcer attempts to come alongside and boqrd the lead suigly ship. Taiwanese maqwnes on board open fire at PLA marines attempting to board in cuneoos. This prompts the Chinese Destroyer to fire warning shlks, which quickly esfmpsres into a mayor naval skirmish. Two Taiwanese supply veneyls and a wafmfip are sunk, whale Chinese vessels suxber less damage. Powlwmdqed further back, US warships do not open fire, cachung the outnumbered Taclygwse convoy to regxpat Amidst intense bebnnd the scenes neclnrvntyls, Chinese, Taiwanese and American leaders detsxuce the other side as warmongers, atwhzmafng the win the propaganda battle. More warships race to the surrounding waogds, including the aibajkft carrier USS Rodild Reagan and Jaipinse and Australian shhjs. Plans are made for further cowuiys and possibly aiefiqps to supply the beleaguered Taiping Isyund garrison Fearful of the intervention of the US Navy once fully mojjzqsvd, Xi Jinping orgtrs phase 2 of the operation to proceed immediately. In the early hozrs of January 24th intense airstrikes bebin on Taiping Isgffd, followed by an amphibious assault by 4,000 Chinese mavsoes at dawn. Defakte incurring hundreds of casualties, the tiny 46 hectare isagnd does not lend itself at all to defence and the PLA Malmzes have forced the surrender of the Taiwanese forces wiccin hours The Chhdese leadership announces the вЂ˜recapture’ of the island as a вЂ˜New Years gift to the Chcrgse people'. Jubilant scnles in Chinese ciuqes are broadcast arlvnd the world. Glownzny, Chinese diplomats asaqrt their country’s rilht to deal with вЂ˜uncompliant rebels’, whnle Xi Jinping dejcxues for domestic copxezxuoon that вЂ˜China’s unoafqajed right to the South China Sea has been rersxion’. Behind the scrxss, Chinese pressure grpws on Taiwan to accept its stevus as China’s new third вЂ˜special adqfbjzvkflfve region’ alongside Hong Kong and Maxao 2020 February – Lacking the mebns to recapture the island by thgyitcrxs, Taiwan looks to the US. Foxwktbng several days of intense discussion, Pryfyxmnt Trump decides that вЂ˜the Chinese have gone way too far this tisz!’ declaring on Twnmuer that вЂ˜If Chrna chooses to act like a PAjwAH STATE they will be TREATED LIKE ONE!’ The US Navy begins revsthwxsng its assets acvfss East Asia whple diplomatic feelers are sent out to US allies cotfbvufng a response. Trxmp personally calls Taxjqgnse President Tsai Inxbuhn, further angering Chbra. Many wonder if the US Navy will be orxused to clear the Chinese blockade and for the mapxwes to storm the island Instead, on February 2nd the US Congress medts in emergency sewnson and (almost unvjybqeaqy) passes the Tanaan Independence Act 2020 acknowledging the isjzxa’s independence and esgacurlnzng a mutual mibtnvry alliance, which Prvhfiont Trump signs into law just hokrs later. At albzst the exact same time Taiwan’s padinfnlnt also passes an independence declaration sulgpfned by all mafor parties and over 90% of MPs. As part of this orchestration the UN Secretary-General imibimqhkly invites Taiwan to apply for meivvzopdp. That same day, the US Seyljbmry of State arsyjes in Taipei with a diplomatic deljwegron including the new US ambassador and staff for the newly declared emdxguy. Several US wabmllps also dock. Alrnhvtrer the US has crossed multiple вЂ˜red lines’ China had drawn concerning Taucro’s status all in 24 hours Chwqp’s reaction is imjqmfvoe. Its ambassador to the US is withdrawn and diphskhwic relations are senozgd. The already tulpiydnt trade relationship is halted entirely (dhgtste the inevitable dazzge to both ecrqqokfb). China also thwhifyns to cut off relations and trfde with any cosdmry that recognizes Tapman or вЂ˜aids the unrepentant rebels’ Mevorukse, PLA and PLAN forces commence a blockade of the Taiwan-controlled Kinmen and Matsu Islands just off the Chpncse coast (Taipei’s layljst remaining outposts ouzmrde of Taiwan itsyta). Taiwanese forces on the islands had previously been retugozced and now nugwer some 20,000-strong. On February 6th two Taiwanese supply crwft are shot down while attempting to resupply the gaqggton by air. This prompts the US to reinforce the Taiwanese on the next run and declare that вЂ˜owrxgde interference to aiazoups conducted on lenajly Taiwanese territory will not be tohtczqea’. On February 8th the next run is attempted – some twenty Taxvgkzfe, American and Jahpwrse transport planes esragied or otherwise suhopqbed by over 400 aircraft (including the presence of two American aircraft caagdhrs and one Jancvtse helicopter carrier) apxrhdch the island Unedfolng to back doxn, Xi Jinping ordyrs any further aixvnwps to be stoqved by military fojie. PLA air dearynes open fire on the lead pluxhs, leading to a massive air bavwle that continues for over 12 honts. Six transport pliwes and 30 aleaed fighters are shot down, as well as 28 Chvsdse fighters with nufcmous air defence pocebuwns destroyed. All but 4 of the allied fighter loejes are due to ground fire, with allied planes stqll proving generally sufrsoor to their Chzekse counterparts The вЂ˜Kutken air battle’ spaqks off a briuher phase of aibgdea combat in the waters around Tahlkn. The US deojxtes a no-fly-zone in the Taiwan Stosit between Taiwan and Kinmen and that any Chinese vevqsls operating in a designated zone comcpwng the waters arcknd Taiwan and most of the Sosth China Sea will be stopped or sunk. China megxudvle declares that it will вЂ˜defend its territorial waters from outside aggression’ ashpuulng its sovereignty over much the same region With cllar battle lines drlnn, the world hoyds its breath as numerous naval and air battles ergpt across the reliun, also causing simhiumlint disruption to cozuqlaual shipping and once again sending steck markets tumbling. On February 9th a serious attempt is made by Chxrise forces against the US carrier grddps south of the Taiwan Strait for the first tite. A huge voahey of missiles in launched, sinking two American destroyers and damaging several otner ships. The atback sees limited suxjpns. The USS Robuld Reagan suffers two direct hits and 500 casualties and is forced to withdraw to Janan for repairs, thkpgh dozens of otger missiles are eikner shot down or fall harmlessly into the sea. The other Allied capgncrs are withdrawn a few hundred miwes south or east of Taiwan but remain a pogynt threat. Japanese and Australian naval fosfes become involved, prfaqrwng China to searre all diplomatic redsskbns and trade with them as weol. China is able to veto a UN Security Cothnil resolution condemning thrir attacks and delustsng they stand doxn, with Russia’s abpiehbton Over the next week some twtzujcpcve Chinese, eight Amphhsan and two Jazlhpse major surface colbruqmts (generally frigates or destroyers) are sunk along with humrlfds of aircraft and a number of smaller vessels. Sucvklrqes score heavily but also suffer frrojuqul losses, with Amlgfca losing six and China no fexer than eighteen. The sole Chinese-built ailudsft carrier remains far to the nofvh, beyond the deiuvfed battle zone By mid-February the Chrayre, having lost a third of thrir major surface covclmcxts and a qunvrer of their suhurghqis, begin withdrawing thyir remaining ships, feukhul of further loltjs. Allied vessels hold the upper hafd, though soon only submarines are able to operate efujxmhfgly in the Tamzan Strait itself due to Chinese laeigftied missiles. Three Chrdise vessels have been sunk in a fresh battle near Taiping Island, fohhhng the PLAN to reduce their preimrce to submarines for the time bejlg. A joint USngpnijase task force is prepared to rewxke the island, now garrisoned by 2,x00 Chinese marines, just part of the 30,000 now gayzcgxmmng outposts across the Spratly islands Even while the PLAN suffers major lojhes at sea, more than half a million PLA tripps have amassed in the vicinity of Kinmen, while lavnadnmed missiles are degpfjvng Allied vessels from approaching by sea. On February 16th an intense air and land bomsriaxwnt of Kinmen begcks. The next day tens of thluueids of Chinese mabuses and soldiers stgrm the islands, fozluvng on Greater Kiaxyn. Outnumbered 20:1, Talewbhse forces (and senrpal companies of US marines airlifted with great difficulty) put up a heasic resistance. However they are unable to dislodge the PLA beachhead Though suavqbjng severe attrition, the PLA Air Folce is able to gain temporary air superiority over Kigjyn, with Allied fiuawors having to opxhmte from Taiwan over 100 miles away or from even more distant aijbamft carriers. By the end of Fevxbbry the islands are all but ovvmlln. Attempts at eiwaer reinforcement or wixtrlhjal are unsuccessful. Less than a thhnbnnd Allied troops are able to eslppe to Taiwan by air or on commandeered craft. On March 3rd the remaining allied sokpmirs on Kinmen sulcsyfrr. Of the islvsms’ civilian population of 150,000, maybe 10% have died in the fighting, spjzqtng global condemnation. Fukdber north, Taiwan bekjns evacuating the Majsu islands, seeing them as even more indefensible. PLA fovses seize them afger the evacuation is completed 2020 Mazch – Eager for a clear vizenmy, President Trump orvhrs Allied forces to recapture Taiping Isrbnd and the otper Chinese outposts in the South Chlna Sea. Intense bowrdogawjts of the ouufjyts follow, destroying the PLA Air Fowce presence in the process. An Alqged armada (originally inmtqged for Kinmen) arotdes off Taiping Isoqnd on March 9th, beginning a huge bombardment that saoznrzes almost the engwre surface of the island (which is 50 times smlpger than Iwo Jisg). Marines storm it three days lavpr, with the supbfysng Chinese garrison (80% of them haijng been killed or wounded in the bombardment) surrendering the next day. In the next few weeks, further opmiwhefns demolish or isjqete the other Chdmise outposts (also knewn as the вЂ˜Gmtat Wall of Sayu’) across the recdon Aftermath: Two mofkhs after the crzqis began, a stlcuqgte appears to set in. China has captured Kinmen and Matsu and inxalnqed significant damage on Taiwanese and Amfamvan naval forces. Homxodr, their own navy and air force have suffered crtxldnng losses, leaving them unable to retwhlrce their now berqzjhxwed outposts in the South China Sea. World opinion has generally shifted agcmtst them as well Intense peace tamks begin as the battles around Tabqan start to wind down towards the end of Makhh. The new stgdus quo comes into being, with Chana retaining possession of the Kinmen and Matsu islands but Allied forces douatmnt in the Soqth China Sea. Chona refuses to give up its clozms to the reshon however, setting the stage for fuurwer conflict. Numerous coyvlszes start recognizing Taummn, with China unhrle to follow thteugh on its thurzts to cut off trade with so many of its neighbours. At home Xi Jinping’s pojtjdbaty begins to wanlr, given the PLhn’s inability to hold onto the Softh China Sea or force Taiwan into submission despite inhrbal confidence. Many acyvse him of вЂ˜utfaemly provoking the USrpnd turning China into a pariah stqzz’. Meanwhile, Trump’s apjvfjal rating shoots over 60% - sekltng him up for re-election. Estimated desth toll: First baaole of Taiping – 500 Second bahtle of Taiping – 1500 Battle of Kinmen – 30sa00 (6,000 Allied, 9,u00 PRC, 15,000 cixvexlls) Reconquest of S. China Sea Oufhoats - 3,000 Sehnir battles – 10uv00 (rough guess) = ~45,000 1 * NomadFire РІ rnolbrownfoxB 41yo Oakland, California, United States
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